In recent years, climate change has been rapidly observed all over the world. Rising temperatures, anomalous heat, strong winds, heavy rains, and floods are no longer exceptions but part of everyday reality. The main cause of these changes is human activity: industry, transportation, agriculture, and other sectors increase the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, disrupting the planet’s heat balance.
Weather phenomena are not limited by the borders of a single country; global processes affect all regions. Therefore, global cooperation and each country's commitment to reducing carbon emissions are of vital importance. At the same time, Azerbaijan's geographical location and natural factors such as the Caspian Sea play an important role in shaping weather processes in the country.
Climate change is not only about rising temperatures but also involves changes in water resources, an increase in extreme meteorological events, and additional pressure on ecosystems. Therefore, climate issues require serious attention from scientific, social, and economic perspectives. Azerbaijan’s future adaptation strategies, as well as the effective use of technology and expert knowledge, will play a key role in reducing climate-related risks.
Climatologist and PhD in Geography Hasan Nabiyev gave an interview to Crossmedia.az on this topic:
– How do global climate changes affect weather processes in Azerbaijan?
Climate change is currently being observed everywhere in the world. For example, global warming is taking place, and various phenomena are associated with it. So far, all countries consider human economic activity to be the main factor. Therefore, efforts are being made to reduce the amount of gases that increase atmospheric temperature.
In 2015, countries united in Paris and committed to reducing these emissions by 2030 and 2050. The key issue is that the increase in carbon dioxide leads to climate warming, which in turn triggers many other events. Azerbaijan also undertook commitments in 2015 and is fulfilling them.
According to UN recommendations, countries should strive to limit temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C; otherwise, we may face serious problems. Azerbaijan is fulfilling its commitments. However, one important point is that weather has no borders. If one country fulfills its obligations but others do not, the overall result will still be negative.
As for weather processes, temperatures in Azerbaijan are rising, atmospheric circulation is changing, and pressure systems are shifting. For example, phenomena that previously occurred in western regions are now shifting eastward. Wind directions have also changed: previously, northern winds dominated, but now northeastern winds are more common.
– This year there was almost no winter. What explains the increase in floods, strong winds, and abnormal heat in recent years?
In recent years, winter has practically disappeared. This year was also mild, although mountainous areas experienced heavy snowfall. Predictions of a harsh winter for Baku did not come true.
Since 2019, floods, heavy rains, lightning, and other extreme events have increased significantly. One of the main reasons is the increased recurrence of meridional processes. According to classifications developed by Russian scientists, atmospheric circulation types are categorized as W, E, and C processes.
E and C are meridional processes, during which air masses from the north and south become more frequent, while west-to-east air flows decrease. This leads to an increase in destructive natural events in Azerbaijan. Research also shows that this is closely related to increased solar activity. Humanity is currently in an 11-year solar cycle, which will continue until 2030, during which temperature increases and meridional processes are expected to intensify.
– How much have modern technologies improved weather forecasting accuracy?
Short-term forecasts tend to be fairly accurate, but long-term forecasts are much less reliable. Although technology improves forecast accuracy, there is a strong need for highly qualified specialists who can interpret and apply these technologies.
– How might global warming change the region’s climate in the future?
Global warming may significantly alter the climate. Rising temperatures could create water shortages in Azerbaijan. Higher temperatures accelerate evaporation, while precipitation is decreasing across regions, especially in foothill areas.
This affects river levels, causes glaciers to melt, and may lead to reduced water resources in the future. For example, rivers in the Quba-Khachmaz region are mainly fed by snow and glacier melt. However, warming raises the snow line and accelerates glacier melting.
If warming continues, evaporation will increase, river levels will drop, and springs may dry up. Human impact will also intensify, making the situation more serious.
– What can you say about the sharp decrease in the Caspian Sea level?
Fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level are among today’s most pressing issues. Data shows that from 1937 to 1977 the level decreased, then rose again between 1978 and 1995, and has been declining again since then.
The main factors affecting the sea level are water balance and tectonic processes. The Volga River provides about 80% of the inflow. Reduced precipitation in the Volga basin leads to a drop in the Caspian Sea level.
Currently, meridional processes (E and C) dominate instead of the precipitation-bringing W processes, which reduces water flow into the Volga and consequently lowers the Caspian Sea level. Research suggests that W processes may increase again after 2050, potentially raising the sea level.
– How do changes in the Caspian Sea affect the region’s weather?
Changes in the Caspian Sea’s temperature and level significantly affect regional weather. While precipitation in Azerbaijan is not directly dependent on the sea, the Caspian has a moderating effect on the climate.
Air masses from the sea play a role, but geographical barriers like the Talysh Mountains force air to rise, cool, and condense, resulting in rainfall. In Baku, urban development (such as skyscrapers) also affects airflow and may increase precipitation locally.
The Caspian Sea is an invaluable resource for Azerbaijan.
– Is it possible to predict extreme weather events?
Predicting extreme weather events is very difficult. For example, floods depend not only on heavy rainfall but also on other factors. Therefore, only probabilistic forecasts can be made. This remains an unresolved scientific challenge.
– What new meteorological risks may arise in the future?
Climate change may create new risks, the most serious being water scarcity. About 50% of Azerbaijan has a semi-desert and dry steppe climate, requiring irrigation.
Most rivers originate outside the country, making water supply a major concern. Reduced river flow is a critical issue. Some countries propose artificial precipitation projects, but their suitability must be carefully evaluated.
Nature may eventually restore balance, and warming could stabilize over time. However, if warming continues, evaporation will increase, rivers will shrink, and springs will dry up.
Overall, climate processes are highly complex and influenced by atmospheric circulation, pressure systems, solar activity, and even cosmic factors. Predicting climate and extreme weather remains a very challenging task.
Hopefully, nature will maintain its balance and the situation will improve.
