In recent days, amid rising military tensions in the region, a new and controversial idea has been circulating in society. According to some claims, the above-average rainfall observed in Azerbaijan is the result of military operations in Iran. At the same time, there are speculations about the negative effects of bombings, explosions, and fires on the atmosphere. While these ideas attract public interest, questions remain: can military operations really influence the weather and climate to such an extent, or is this just a coincidence?
Not Local, But Large-Scale Changes
Dr. Said Safarov, head of the Caspian Sea Hydrometeorology Department at the Institute of Geography of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, believes that it is scientifically incorrect to attribute observed climate changes solely to military activities. He notes that similar intensive rainfall was recorded in Dagestan during the same period, and similar events have previously occurred in geographically distant regions such as New York. This indicates that these processes are not local but are the result of broader atmospheric changes.
The scientist emphasizes that explaining such events requires focusing on global atmospheric circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the Arctic, strong cold air masses normally move with a certain stability and maintain their structure. This process is described in scientific literature as a “polar vortex.” However, due to various factors—such as the formation of blocking anticyclones—this system’s movement can slow, causing the cold air masses to lose stability and disperse. These masses then enter the general atmospheric circulation, leading to sudden and unexpected weather changes in different regions, including heavy rainfall. The events observed in late March to early April are most likely related to this mechanism.
Dr. Səfərov adds that while the local impact of certain technological tools used during military operations on the atmosphere cannot be completely ruled out, there is no scientifically proven evidence that such activities can cause widespread or long-term climate changes. On the contrary, recent climate anomalies are mostly global in nature and result from the interaction of various natural factors.
Artificial Rain Projects Affect Humidity Balance
Another point highlighted by the expert is the artificial rainfall projects carried out in some countries. According to him, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates release various chemical reagents into the atmosphere as part of these technologies. While this can locally affect the humidity balance and create some changes, whether such measures can fundamentally alter global weather systems is still under discussion.
According to Dr. Safarov, attributing recent events to military activities is largely a hypothesis based on temporal coincidence. He notes that similar events have occurred repeatedly throughout history, but limited information exchange in the past meant such events did not reach the wider public. In the modern era, however, the speed of global information flow ensures that any natural event immediately becomes a focus of attention and is accompanied by various interpretations.
