In recent days, discussions have emerged, based on foreign sources, suggesting that this summer will be exceptionally hot in Azerbaijan. However, the main point of interest is the scientific basis on which these forecasts are made. Since Azerbaijan is located mainly within the subtropical climate zone, tropical air masses dominate during the summer months. This is one of the main factors contributing to high air temperatures.
This information was provided to AZERTAC by Hasan Nabiyev, a leading researcher at the Climate Department of the Institute of Geography under the Ministry of Science and Education of Azerbaijan and a PhD in Geography. According to Hasan Nabiyev, approximately 50 percent of Azerbaijan's territory is characterized by a hot and dry climate. The highest temperature ever recorded in the country was registered in the city of Julfa, Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, reaching 46°C.
“The probability of temperatures exceeding 44°C in Julfa is about 5 percent. This means that such temperatures are recorded on average once every 20 years. Similar extreme temperatures are also observed in Ordubad, the Absheron Peninsula, and the Kura-Aras Lowland. Meanwhile, the probability of annual temperatures reaching 38–39°C in Julfa is 95 percent,” the scientist noted.
According to Hasan Nabiyev, these figures indicate that the occurrence of high temperatures during the summer months is not unusual for the population of Azerbaijan.
“As we have previously stated, increased solar activity, particularly within the framework of the 25th 11-year Solar Cycle (2019–2030), may contribute to hotter summers and rising temperatures in Azerbaijan, as well as in other parts of the world,” he emphasized.
Nabiyev also noted that the highest temperature values in Azerbaijan are generally observed during July and August. Therefore, the occurrence of hot weather during the summer season should be regarded as a natural process consistent with the country's climatic characteristics.
