Interview with Zaur Imrani, Director of the Institute of Geography, for APA
Azerbaijan’s official climate classification still recognizes four seasons
– What are the main impacts of climate change observed in Azerbaijan? It seems that the traditional concept of four seasons has been replaced by only two—summer and winter.
– Climate change has been studied around the world for many years. It is commonly associated with an increase in average air temperature. Some scientists believe that rising average temperatures are the main driver of climate change, as higher temperatures lead to warming at both regional and global scales.
However, climate change also increases atmospheric humidity and alters atmospheric circulation, which can result in rare snowfall events in hot or arid regions after many years. For example, snow fell in Baghdad in 2020 and in the Sahara Desert—the world's largest tropical desert located in North Africa—in 2021. Such events illustrate the increasingly variable and extreme nature of the climate.
Climatologists emphasize that short-term and localized cold weather events, including rare snowfall, may still occur despite the long-term warming trend. Therefore, it would be incorrect to associate climate change solely with global warming. While some regions of the world are experiencing warming, others are witnessing the opposite process. Nevertheless, the overall global trend remains one of warming.
This trend poses numerous economic challenges. Initially, climate change was primarily viewed as an environmental issue because warming affects ecosystems and gives rise to various ecological problems. For instance, the retreat of the Caspian Sea is often linked to rising temperatures. However, it should be remembered that fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level—including both declines and increases—have occurred throughout history. These are cyclical processes, and the Caspian Sea is currently in one of its declining phases.
Overall, global climate change is transforming seasonal patterns. In many regions, spring and autumn are becoming shorter and losing many of their distinctive characteristics. As a result, the year is increasingly dominated by two major periods: a long, hot and dry summer, and a relatively short, mild and variable winter.
Similar observations have been made in Azerbaijan over recent decades, with summers becoming longer and hotter, while spring and autumn have become shorter and less stable. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's official climate classification still recognizes four seasons. The seasons have not disappeared; rather, their duration and characteristics have changed. This trend has significant implications for agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, and people's lifestyles.
The Caspian Sea's next cyclical rise in water level may begin after 2049
– You mentioned that the Caspian Sea is currently in a period of declining water levels. Public forecasts regarding this issue are often contradictory. What factors are contributing to the decrease in the Caspian Sea's water level?
– The Institute of Geography has been conducting scientific research on the Caspian Sea for many years, and these studies have recently become even more intensive. Every year, monitoring is carried out in the northern, central, and southern parts of Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian Sea to assess ongoing changes.
There are various scenarios concerning fluctuations in the Caspian Sea's water level. According to these scenarios, numerous interconnected socio-economic and environmental factors are influencing the current period of declining sea levels.
From an environmental perspective, the retreat of the sea is affecting marine ecosystems. Aquatic vegetation has become less abundant, reducing the food supply for fish and potentially creating even more serious ecological problems in the future.
From a socio-economic perspective, falling water levels are causing substantial damage to maritime industries. The shallowing of port waters affects ship operations, coastal oil terminals, pipelines, offshore structures, tourism facilities, and other infrastructure, potentially resulting in significant economic losses.
The Caspian Sea's greatest challenge is that approximately 73 percent of its water balance comes from the Volga River. Today, numerous industrial facilities and agricultural enterprises along the Volga basin consume considerable amounts of water, reducing the volume flowing into the Caspian Sea.
Climate change is another important factor. Rising temperatures increase evaporation, while stronger winds and changing wind patterns accelerate the transport of evaporated moisture away from the sea surface. Together, these processes directly contribute to the decline in the Caspian Sea's water level.
We conduct regular monitoring. Let me mention the findings of our two most recent surveys. During our first monitoring expedition in the Lankaran-Astara region, submerged tree stumps became visible as the sea retreated. A few months later, during a second survey, we observed that heavy rainfall had submerged those stumps once again. However, this did not indicate that the Caspian Sea level had risen; it was simply a temporary fluctuation.
According to our preliminary research, the next cyclical rise in the Caspian Sea's water level may begin after 2049. Until then, water levels are expected to continue declining, bringing with them numerous geographical, environmental, and socio-economic challenges. Therefore, our priority should be to develop adaptation strategies and align economic planning with these expected changes in order to minimize future risks.
Some people suggest that the Caspian Sea's water level could be artificially increased. However, this would require extensive scientific research and would be extremely difficult to implement.
As early as the 1930s–1950s, proposals were made to divert water from the Pechora and Kama rivers into the Volga River basin through canal systems, with the expectation that this would increase the amount of water flowing into the Caspian Sea. However, the project was never implemented because of its enormous cost and the potential environmental impacts on surrounding ecosystems.
Moreover, regulating the amount of water flowing into the Caspian Sea during periods of rising sea levels has also generated considerable debate. Although many proposals have been put forward, it remains uncertain whether any of them would prove effective in the long term.
Artificially Raising the Caspian Sea Level in the Short Term Is Extremely Difficult
– What steps should be taken to address this problem?
– Artificially increasing the Caspian Sea's water level in the short term is extremely difficult. However, coordinated basin-wide measures could help preserve the sea's water balance. First and foremost, the Caspian littoral states should work together to conduct comprehensive scientific research. Based on the findings of these studies, they may be able to propose alternative solutions for increasing the Caspian Sea's water level.
The restoration of Lake Urmia provides an interesting example in this regard. The dramatic decline in the lake's water volume was caused by the diversion of river water for agricultural purposes, prolonged drought, and climate change. Measures introduced to restore the lake include re-establishing the flow of rivers feeding the lake, implementing water-efficient irrigation technologies, restricting illegal water withdrawals, and ensuring environmental water releases from certain dams. Although Lake Urmia has not yet returned to its former condition, its water level continues to recover.
A similar approach could be considered for the Caspian Sea through comprehensive scientific research. Possible measures include improving water resource management within the Volga River basin, maintaining the environmental flow of other rivers that discharge into the Caspian Sea, reducing water losses in irrigation systems, and establishing a joint water management mechanism among the Caspian basin countries.
Preventing Flooding During Intense Rainfall Is Extremely Challenging—Even in Developed European Countries
– Azerbaijan has recently experienced rainfall far exceeding normal levels within very short periods. We have also observed unusually windy weather outside the typical season, and sharp weather changes often seem to occur on weekends. Are these manifestations of climate change or simply localized weather events?
– Against the backdrop of global warming, some years may be cooler while others are warmer. This natural variability creates uncertainty in long-term climate projections. The weather-related changes we are witnessing are not merely local phenomena—they are part of a global process occurring across many countries.
For example, torrential rainfall has caused severe flooding in several European cities. This does not mean that extreme weather is unique to Azerbaijan. Like many other regions, our country is also experiencing the impacts of global climate change. However, it is still impossible to make precise climate predictions. In science, a forecast is not an exact description of the future but rather an estimate of the most probable outcomes under specific scenarios.
Rainfall far above normal levels primarily causes serious damage to cities and urban infrastructure. To minimize such impacts, urban infrastructure and stormwater management systems must be designed to prevent flooding. Roads, tunnels, residential areas, and other facilities are often inundated shortly after heavy rainfall.
The Institute of Geography is conducting extensive research using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to identify flood-prone locations and assess areas most vulnerable to water accumulation.
It should be emphasized that preventing flooding during extreme rainfall is very difficult. We observe the same situation even in highly developed European countries, where many cities experience flooding after torrential rains. No city is completely protected from such natural events. Urban development and drainage systems are designed according to established engineering standards, but when rainfall exceeds normal levels several times over, flooding becomes much more likely.
There are several reasons why flooding occurs more rapidly in urban areas. The most significant is urban infrastructure itself. The construction of new buildings, the expansion of asphalt-covered roads, and the paving of sidewalks reduce the land's ability to absorb rainwater. As a result, runoff naturally flows toward sloping and low-lying areas, where flooding occurs.
Using Geographic Information Systems, it is possible to identify locations where rainwater accumulates and implement measures to remove excess water before it remains trapped in these areas. While such measures may not eliminate flooding entirely, they can significantly reduce its impact.
Most flood-damaged houses have been built on former wetlands or in low-lying depressions. During heavy rainfall, groundwater rises to the surface, and because these houses are located in naturally low areas, they become flooded. Construction in locations that do not comply with building regulations—often chosen solely for their attractive appearance—inevitably leads to such problems.
There are also steep slopes where construction should be prohibited altogether. Similar issues exist in road construction. Roads are sometimes built along steep terrain, with additional concrete retaining structures added afterward. However, concrete structures alone are often unable to stabilize steep and high-volume slopes effectively.
Increasing Heavy Rainfall Poses Serious Risks to Agriculture
– How does the increase in heavy rainfall affect agriculture? What are the risks in terms of soil erosion and agricultural productivity?
– The growing frequency of heavy and intense rainfall has both short-term and long-term adverse effects on agriculture. The most serious challenges include soil erosion, declining soil fertility, and reduced crop productivity. Therefore, implementing soil conservation measures and climate-resilient agricultural practices is of critical importance.
More frequent heavy rainfall and hailstorms have been observed in many regions, causing significant damage to agriculture. As these extreme weather events become more intense and precipitation exceeds normal levels, agricultural production is directly affected. While such natural phenomena cannot be prevented, there are effective ways to mitigate their impacts.
For example, rainwater can be collected and stored in reservoirs for use during the hot, dry summer months to irrigate agricultural lands. In urban areas, the stored water can also be used to irrigate parks and green spaces. Although such systems require substantial investment and are relatively costly, they remain one of the most effective long-term solutions.
Drought and Desertification Have Become Major Environmental Challenges in Azerbaijan
– In recent years, Azerbaijan has experienced both droughts and periods of heavy rainfall. How does science explain these seemingly contradictory phenomena?
– During the 1970s and 1980s, scientific research in Azerbaijan primarily focused on drought and desertification. These issues continue to be studied extensively today.
Over recent decades, drought and desertification have become among Azerbaijan's most significant environmental challenges. In addition to climate change, the main driving factors include declining water resources, unsustainable land use, and various anthropogenic impacts.
Due to its geographical location within a semi-desert and dry subtropical climate zone, Azerbaijan is naturally prone to drought. However, global climate change is accelerating this process. Water scarcity, land degradation, and the risk of desertification are becoming increasingly severe, particularly in arid regions such as the Kura–Araz Lowland and the Absheron Peninsula.
It would be incorrect to attribute this process solely to rainfall patterns. Drought is primarily associated with rising average annual temperatures, longer summer seasons, more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased evaporation, and related climatic factors.
The Area Covered by Glaciers Has Decreased Approximately 3.5 to 4 Times Over the Past 30 Years
– Which regions of Azerbaijan are the most vulnerable to climate change?
– Mountainous regions are the most vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures have a direct impact on glaciers. Over the past 30 years, glacier-covered areas have decreased by approximately 3.5 to 4 times. The retreat of glaciers provides clear evidence of the ongoing warming trend.
However, when discussing vulnerable areas, we must consider not only natural processes but also human activities, including economic development and industrial expansion. Human intervention often accelerates natural processes.
Large urban centers are among the most vulnerable areas. At the same time, landslides, rockfalls, and floods occur more frequently in foothill regions. Since these hazards differ in nature and causes, it is difficult to identify a single region as being the most vulnerable.
Research on the Liberated Territories Focuses on Environmental Restoration and Sustainable Development
– What research is being carried out to study the geographical and ecological conditions of the liberated territories? What scientific approaches are being proposed to restore their environmental condition?
– The Institute of Geography has been conducting research in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur for the past five years. During the occupation, we were unable to obtain meteorological observations from these territories, so we relied on aerospace and remote sensing technologies. Today, using specialized methodologies, we are able to reconstruct climate indicators for the region.
Extensive research has been carried out by all departments and laboratories of the Institute. Following the liberation of these territories, we organized numerous field expeditions. Based on the data collected during these expeditions, comprehensive research reports were prepared. In addition, two international conferences have been organized, and one scientific monograph has been published on this subject.
Newly constructed residential buildings in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur are widely equipped with solar panels, and the use of renewable energy sources is expanding rapidly. New industrial facilities have also been established, with particular emphasis on developing agriculture and tourism. Service infrastructure is being built in accordance with international standards.
The concept of a green economy is being actively implemented throughout Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur, reflecting one of the fundamental principles of modern sustainable socio-economic and environmental development. Developed countries increasingly adopt green economy principles when establishing new economic systems, and we can clearly observe the same approach being implemented in these regions.
Natural Population Growth Was Once Higher in the Lankaran–Astara Region, but Today It Is Higher in the Aran Districts
– How do you assess the current dynamics of population growth in Azerbaijan?
– Population growth is one of the most significant challenges facing not only Azerbaijan but the entire world. The consequences of current demographic trends may not be fully apparent today, but they are likely to become evident over the next 15 to 20 years.
Although Azerbaijan's population continues to grow, the pace of growth has slowed compared with previous decades. This change is primarily associated with declining birth rates, changes in the population's age structure, and migration processes.
It is a fact that natural population growth has declined nationwide. Many European countries with low natural population growth increasingly rely on immigration to maintain demographic balance, although it remains uncertain how sustainable this approach will be in the long term.
Natural population growth has always varied across different regions of Azerbaijan. For example, the Lankaran–Astara region previously recorded the highest rates of natural increase, whereas in recent years higher growth has been observed in the Aran districts.
From a geographical and demographic perspective, Azerbaijan's population growth is still driven mainly by natural increase, while migration primarily influences the spatial distribution of the population. Although declining birth rates have reduced the pace of natural growth, international migration has not yet become the principal factor shaping the country's overall demographic dynamics.
For this reason, demographic policy should prioritize encouraging higher birth rates, expanding employment opportunities in the regions, and achieving a more balanced pattern of internal migration.
