As the rainy season begins in Azerbaijan, concerns have emerged over whether disasters similar to the recent devastating floods in Nepal could also occur in our country.
The catastrophic floods in Nepal not only caused significant human and economic losses but also once again highlighted the growing risks associated with climate change. In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events—including heavy rainfall, flash floods, and river flooding-has been observed worldwide. Although such natural disasters cannot be completely prevented, effective preparedness can substantially reduce human casualties and material damage.
In Azerbaijan, the increase in heavy rainfall in recent years, along with several serious flood events recorded across different regions this year, has raised important questions. Could Azerbaijan experience a disaster comparable to the floods in Nepal? How do local experts assess the current risks, and what measures should be taken to minimize potential impacts?
Deforestation Increases Flood Risk
According to Prof. Said Safarov, Head of the Caspian Sea Geography Laboratory at the Institute of Geography, Ministry of Science and Education of Azerbaijan, flood risk is influenced by both natural and human-induced factors.
"One of the major anthropogenic factors is deforestation on mountain slopes and in river valleys. When forests are removed, rainwater cannot sufficiently infiltrate the soil and instead flows rapidly over the surface, increasing the intensity and destructive power of floods," he explained.
Prof. Safarov emphasized that a flash flood differs significantly from an ordinary river flood. In addition to water, flash floods carry large amounts of rocks, sand, soil, fallen trees, and other debris, greatly increasing their destructive force.
He also noted that another important factor is the increasing occurrence of intense rainfall within short periods. "Global warming accelerates the atmospheric moisture cycle. Rainfall that previously accumulated over 24 hours may now fall within just two hours," he said.
Rainfall-Induced Flash Floods Are Azerbaijan's Main Threat
Prof. Safarov stressed that the flood disaster in Nepal cannot be directly compared with Azerbaijan because Nepal's unique combination of rugged topography, glaciers, and monsoon rains creates much more destructive conditions.
"The Nepal disaster is unique. Large permanent glaciers exist in its high mountain regions, and global warming is accelerating glacier melting. Video footage shows massive blocks of ice breaking away from mountain peaks and moving downslope, carrying rocks, soil, sand, and trees with them. As this mass travels, it grows larger and increasingly destructive."
He explained that Azerbaijan does not possess extensive permanent glaciers capable of producing floods of this magnitude. Instead, the country's primary flood hazard results from intense rainfall. However, this does not mean Azerbaijan is free from serious flood risks.
"Depending on rainfall intensity and the accumulation of flood debris in mountain catchments, Azerbaijan can also experience powerful and destructive flash floods," he noted.
The scientist recalled that Azerbaijan has experienced severe floods in the past. In 1907, a devastating flash flood in the Shin River near Sheki completely destroyed a settlement and resulted in significant loss of life.
Early Warning Is Essential
According to Prof. Safarov, while floods cannot be entirely prevented, their impacts can be greatly reduced through effective preparedness.
"The priority should be minimizing human casualties and economic losses. Strengthening early warning systems is essential," he said.
He noted that Azerbaijan's hydrometeorological service currently operates four weather radars, three of which are Doppler radars capable of monitoring precipitation and forecasting severe weather conditions.
In addition to radar observations, Prof. Safarov emphasized the importance of conducting field investigations in flood-prone areas. Such studies help determine how much flood material may accumulate on mountain slopes and within river basins before extreme rainfall events occur.
Other key preventive measures include constructing protective embankments, reinforcing river channels, and restoring forests. Healthy vegetation slows surface runoff, reduces soil erosion, and significantly weakens the force of flash floods.
Severe Floods Are Still Possible
Prof. Asgar Mammadov of the Faculty of Geography at Baku State University also believes that severe flood events are possible in Azerbaijan, although a disaster identical to Nepal's is highly unlikely.
"Such an event is very unlikely to occur in Azerbaijan's lowland regions. However, flash floods accompanied by landslides may occur," he stated.
Mountainous Regions Face the Highest Risk
According to Prof. Mammadov, flood hazards are particularly significant in Azerbaijan's mountainous areas, especially along river valleys and in regions with unstable geological conditions.
"The river valleys of the Lesser Caucasus are especially vulnerable because of fragile and unstable soils. Similar hazards also exist in parts of the Greater Caucasus, with the Quba–Zagatala region being among the most flood-prone areas."
He emphasized that prevention is far more effective than post-disaster response. Early warning systems and the timely evacuation of residents from high-risk areas are crucial for protecting lives.
"People should pay close attention to weather forecasts and official warnings and be prepared to respond when necessary," Prof. Mammadov concluded.
