"Both in autumn and at the beginning of winter, the global average temperature is expected to be slightly above normal."

These remarks were made by Said Safarov, Head of the Caspian Sea Geography Laboratory at the Institute of Geography under Azerbaijan's Ministry of Science and Education, in an interview with Olke.az about this year's autumn weather.

According to him, it is difficult to make an exact forecast:

"In addition to global warming, there are other factors that can either strengthen or weaken its effects. One of these factors is El Niño. According to observations by weather forecasting centers around the world and the World Meteorological Organization, the intensity of El Niño is increasing. What is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon based on differences in air pressure and sea surface temperatures between the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and the eastern Pacific near the coast of South America. Currently, this temperature difference is becoming greater, leading to an increase in the El Niño Index.

This indicates that, in the near future, both during autumn and at the beginning of winter, the world's average temperature is likely to remain slightly above normal. However, the effects may vary from region to region.

For example, Europe experienced extremely hot weather during the summer. In Azerbaijan, however, the impact was not as pronounced. Why is that?

Although temperature changes are related to El Niño, many other factors also influence the climate. As a result, El Niño affects different parts of the world in different ways. While its impact was not very noticeable in Azerbaijan during the summer, that does not necessarily mean it will remain the same in autumn."

Mr. Safarov added that autumn temperatures in Azerbaijan could be noticeably higher than normal:

"At the same time, rising temperatures may lead to localized heavy rainfall in some areas. This could increase the risk of flash floods and flooding, especially in regions already prone to such hazards.

In conclusion, global temperatures are expected to rise, and forecasts suggest that the world's average temperature will be higher than normal during the autumn season.

For Azerbaijan, however, the situation is somewhat different. According to our research and studies conducted by other Azerbaijani scientists, El Niño's influence on Azerbaijan's temperatures is relatively limited. While some parts of the world may experience much greater warming, temperatures in Azerbaijan are expected to remain close to normal or only slightly above average."