The shrinking of the Caspian Sea, desertification of vast territories, and accelerated melting of glaciers in the Greater Caucasus are not isolated natural anomalies or a chain of random catastrophes. They are manifestations of systemic climatic and environmental processes. These phenomena are driven by global warming, changes in precipitation patterns, rising average annual temperatures, and increasing human impact.

Such trends can be analyzed and forecasted scientifically. Modern methods of climate modeling, hydrological monitoring, and satellite observations allow researchers to simulate scenarios of Caspian Sea level changes, assess soil degradation risks, and predict the reduction of glacier masses in the Caucasus. The question is not whether these changes are occurring, but how promptly the countries in the region adapt their economic and environmental policies to these new realities.

We spoke with Dr. Natavan Jafarova, PhD in Geography and Head of the Laboratory of “Geospatial Analytics and Cartography” at the Institute of Geography under the Ministry of Science and Education, about how satellite images and “smart maps” help adapt to climate change.

– What does your laboratory do, and how does its work help the country?

We work with spatial data, cartographic materials, satellite imagery, terrain models, and climate and environmental indicators. Our main areas are geospatial analytics, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and cartography. Our research focuses on collecting, processing, analyzing, and visualizing spatial data, as well as creating thematic and analytical maps.

Our scientific activities cover priority areas such as natural resource management, environmental risk assessment, landscape change monitoring, and sustainable territorial planning. The results are presented as cartographic products, spatial models, and applied scientific reports.

I would like to emphasize that we not only create maps but also compile an extensive database that specialists in various fields can use to forecast processes such as floods, droughts, and environmental risks.

– Which international projects does your laboratory participate in?

We have established partnerships with international scientific networks, initiatives, and organizations related to territorial monitoring and climate adaptation, including platforms for monitoring mountain ecosystems and transboundary water cooperation. Our institute collaborates with organizations such as UNEP, FAO, UN Women, GEO Mountains, the Geography Institute of Georgia, and Mountains ADAPT.

International cooperation is particularly important in climate matters, as natural processes do not recognize borders. In this context, regional cooperation is critical for countries sharing a single ecosystem. For example, the Greater Caucasus ecosystem forms water resources, climate conditions, and natural risks for multiple countries in the region. Changes in snow cover, river regimes, or the intensification of extreme events in one country inevitably affect neighboring territories.

Coordination of monitoring, data exchange, and joint methodology development allows for a holistic understanding of ongoing processes. Participation in international and regional grant initiatives is especially important for long-term management of natural risks.

– Which environmental problems are most concerning, and what is the role of spatial data in studying them?

First, the decline in the Caspian Sea level, which affects coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and economic activity.

Second, increasing aridity and land degradation, especially in the arid areas of Absheron and the Kura-Araz lowlands. Processes of desertification, soil exhaustion, and vegetation loss are intensifying.

Third, changes in river hydrology and reduction of snow cover in the Greater Caucasus mountains, which directly impact the country’s water reserves.

For example, in the Shakhova Spit area, the shoreline has shifted more than 100–200 meters in recent years. The shrinking sea disrupts coastal ecosystems, changes salinity, and degrades spawning grounds. Satellite monitoring is crucial here, as it allows continuous tracking of shoreline changes, comparison over time, and estimation of water retreat speed. For long and hard-to-reach coastlines, this is the most reliable monitoring tool.

In October 2024, a severe environmental disaster caused by flooding occurred in Baku and the Absheron Peninsula. In two days, precipitation reached 86 mm—over 300% of the monthly norm. This caused large-scale flooding of streets, homes, public buildings, and transport infrastructure, severely disrupting city operations.

For such scenarios, long-term monitoring and analysis are essential. Using spatial data and models, high-risk flood zones can be identified, drainage system loads forecasted, and early warning planning supported for authorities.

Urbanization processes, especially in Baku, are also important. High building density, reduced green spaces, and increased traffic contribute to “heat island” effects, adding stress to infrastructure and increasing environmental risks. All these changes are long-term and require comprehensive scientific monitoring and strategic territorial planning.

– How do spatial-geographical changes affect people’s quality of life?

They directly affect daily life and living standards, impacting water quality, food security, infrastructure, and public health.

• Declining Caspian Sea levels influence coastal areas, employment, and ecosystems.
• Increasing aridity and river regime changes affect agriculture and water supply.
• Extreme precipitation threatens urban infrastructure, transportation, and public safety.

Thus, geographical changes are not abstract scientific processes but factors directly determining comfort, resilience, and safety. Systematic spatial analysis allows early identification of vulnerable areas and facilitates better territorial planning.

– Let’s talk about the Caspian Sea shrinkage. Could you elaborate on this problem?

Historically, the Caspian Sea has shown pronounced periodic fluctuations in water levels. Different decades experienced both rapid rises and significant declines. As a result, opposing slogans have emerged in public and scientific discourse:

• “We must protect ourselves from the Caspian” when water levels rose and coastal flooding occurred
• “We must save the Caspian” when a stable decline in water level was observed

This highlights that the Caspian is a dynamic system, sensitive to climatic and hydrological changes, requiring continuous scientific monitoring and balanced coastal management.

Experts, including our Institute, focus on Caspian issues. Notably, academician Ramiz Mamedov made significant contributions to studying Caspian hydrology and ecology. Our laboratory analyzes spatial dynamics of changes and their territorial consequences.

– How does climate change affect agriculture, including in Azerbaijan?

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns directly impact crop yields, increasing risks of drought and soil degradation.

• In lowlands (Kura-Araz, Nakhchivan, Absheron), rising temperatures and frequent dry periods intensify water scarcity, degrade soils, and reduce yields of traditional crops.
• Evaporation increases and uneven rainfall complicates planting schedules and requires efficient water management.

Conversely, in some foothill and mountainous regions (Quba-Khachmaz, Shaki-Zagatala, Ganja-Dashkasan), the growing season is lengthening, offering opportunities to diversify crops, introduce more heat-tolerant varieties, and improve horticulture and viticulture productivity—provided water resources are managed rationally.

Climate change necessitates adaptation using modern technologies: drip irrigation, drought-resistant crops, digital agro-monitoring, and satellite-based assessments of crop condition and soil moisture. Geospatial analysis helps identify risk zones, forecast yields, and support decision-making.

Thus, climate change presents both challenges and opportunities, and agriculture increasingly depends on scientifically grounded adaptation and modern technology.

– Which areas of the country are prone to desertification?

The most vulnerable are arid and semi-arid regions:

• Kura-Araz lowlands: Sabirabad, Saatly, Imishli, and Beylagan districts
• Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic due to continental climate and water scarcity
• Absheron Peninsula where natural aridity is exacerbated by human activity
• Mil and Mughan steppes where pasture degradation and vegetation loss are observed

Causes include rising temperatures, reduced effective rainfall, inefficient water use, and overgrazing. Satellite monitoring and vegetation indices identify degradation hotspots, track biomass reduction, and generate vulnerability maps for land restoration and sustainable management programs.

– How do your studies help city development?

They provide tangible benefits through analysis of urban structure, population density, traffic loads, green spaces, and microclimate. Using GIS and satellite data, we can identify:

• Heat islands
• Areas lacking greenery
• Flood-prone or landslide-risk zones

This is critical for urban planning, as modern city development must be based on scientifically justified spatial calculations. Proper territorial planning allows for anticipatory climate risk management, optimal infrastructure placement, expansion of green areas, and creation of resilient, comfortable urban environments.

In May, Baku will host the 13th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF13), one of the largest international platforms for sustainable urban development. The Institute of Geography will actively participate in sessions and discussions on urban planning, climate adaptation, and sustainable city development.

– How do you envision Azerbaijan in 20–30 years?

I see it as a more resilient, prosperous, and strategically strong country. Peace in the region creates new opportunities for development.

Particularly important is the revival and active development of the Karabakh region, which has enormous economic, natural, and strategic potential. Rational development of these areas with sound territorial planning could become a key driver of long-term growth.

At the same time, I believe a sustainable future is impossible without science. Agriculture, urban development, and natural resource management must rely on scientific research and objective data. Increasing funding for research, especially in geospatial data collection and analysis, is equally important. Such analytics allow monitoring processes dynamically, assessing risks, and planning development decades ahead.

In summary: a strong country is one that builds its development on peace, knowledge, and science.